Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
Amidst rising Middle East tensions, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar highlights India's strategic dialogue with Iran to safeguard maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring India's energy security and continued oil trade.
The Indian government has increased measures to secure fuel and gas supplies following the Strait of Hormuz closure, urging citizens to avoid panic buying. Refineries are operating at high capacity, and sufficient stocks of petrol and diesel are available nationwide.
To meet liquidity pressure because of advance tax outflows this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a measured approach with its latest announcement of open-market operations (OMOs), worth Rs 1 trillion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi for a two-day visit focused on strengthening ties with India, including defense cooperation and trade, amidst a changing geopolitical landscape.
India will now face a lower reciprocal tariff of 10 per cent, down from 25 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a new global levy on items imported into America in the wake of the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping duties on several nations.
Analysts predict a surge in gold and silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The impact on domestic prices will depend on the conflict's duration, with geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data also playing a role.
'Reliance on crude oil is still very high. Globally, natural gas is 25 per cent of the energy basket. In India, it has fallen to 6.5 per cent, from 11 per cent in 2014.'
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
India's decision to import LPG from the US helps it to diversify sources as it reduces almost full reliance on West Asian countries for supply of the country's primary cooking fuel.
Saudi Arabia's steep cut in LPG benchmark prices has pushed India's household LPG underrecoveries to their lowest level in over two years, slashing oil companies' losses from Rs 200-250 per cylinder last year to about Rs 20-40 now.
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
The US sees an opportunity to expand its strategic relationship with Pakistan but assures that it will not come at the expense of its ties with India, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The field pumped about 5,000 barrels of crude oil on the restart as the company tested equipments and systems. Output may rise to 10,000-12,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the month-end, when the field would be shut again for 45 days to hook up more oil wells.
The imported crude was valued at $64.98 billion, up 85.8 per cent, as oil prices in the international market skyrocketed with import prices hitting a record high of $849.10 per ton in June, the General Administration of Customs said. China exported 2.37 million tons of crude and 7.88 million tons of refined products, a 30.6 per cent jump and 0.3 per cent decline, respectively, from a year earlier, it said. China had recently raised the prices of gasoline by 16 per cent.
India has rejected White House Trade advisor Peter Navarro's comments on New Delhi for its procurement of Russian crude oil, calling them 'inaccurate and misleading'. The relations between New Delhi and Washington are on a downturn after President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods.
Putin's State visit will centre on fixing the huge India-Russia trade imbalance, with both sides pushing to lower duties, ease non-tariff barriers, and seal a landmark mobility pact to send more Indian workers to Russia.
India imports nearly 60 percent of its LPG, with most cargo previously coming through the Strait of Hormuz, now closed for commercial shipping.
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Exports grew to $16.34 billion while imports rose to $27.14 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $10.79 billion in July, according to official figures released in New Delhi on Monday. On the back of increase in global prices, the crude oil import bill in July shot up by 69.3 per cent to $9.48 billion from $5.6 billion a year ago.
India and the US have decided to reschedule their meeting to finalize the interim trade pact due to recent developments and implications, including changes in US tariffs.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, falling over 1 per cent due to foreign fund outflows and global uncertainties.
India, the world's third largest oil importing and consuming nation, is likely to save as much as Rs 1.8 lakh crore on import of crude oil and LNG if the trend of softening international energy rates continues, Icra said Wednesday. India, which meets over 85 per cent of its crude oil needs through imports, spent $242.4 billion on buying crude from overseas in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.
Indian stock market benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rebounded by over 1% on Monday, driven by value-buying in banking stocks after a three-day slump. Key gainers included UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra.
Fertiliser production dropped sharply by 11.5 per cent, crude oil by 5 per cent and natural gas by 0.9 per cent in October over the year-ago month
Following a Supreme Court setback, Donald Trump has announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, impacting international trade relations and raising concerns about economic repercussions.
India's exports jumped by 19.37 per cent to $38.13 billion in November, while imports dipped by 1.88 per cent to $62.66 billion, according to government data released on Monday.
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday slapped an additional 25 per cent tariff on goods coming from India as penalty for New Delhi's continued buying of Russian oil.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
The decision by the Union government and the Reserve Bank of India to infuse Rs 1,25,000 crore (Rs 1,250 billion) into the banking system in the last two weeks alone is unlikely to fuel inflation, say economists, since this infusion will only meet the basic demand and not lead to a spillover.
Donald Trump's inconsistent statements and actions regarding the conflict with Iran have drawn criticism and confusion, raising questions about American credibility and the direction of US foreign policy.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
If the oil infrastructure is attacked by the United States, the whole area could be flooded with oil, spilling into the Persian Gulf.
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